2019年1月3日 星期四

民粹主義者今年的成績單 A Report Card on the Populists


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2019/01/04 第248期 訂閱/退訂看歷史報份
 
 
紐時周報精選 民粹主義者今年的成績單 A Report Card on the Populists
黃背心示威 反映流動性危機 France's Yellow Vests Reveal a Crisis of Mobility in All Its Forms
紐時周報精選
 
民粹主義者今年的成績單 A Report Card on the Populists
文/Peter Eavis
譯/莊蕙嘉

This was the year populists made real efforts to challenge the economic consensus that has set the terms of the global economy for decades.

這一年,民粹主義者作出實際的嘗試,挑戰設定全球經濟關係數十年的經濟共識。

How are they doing?

他們做得如何?

It's a mixed bag. President Donald Trump's trade war achieved some gains but has yet to deliver the type of change many populists have called for, like a rollback of China's interventionist industrial policies. Britain's plan to leave the European Union has not made it through the country's Parliament. But Italy's populist government this week reached a fiscal deal with the European Union that appears to be a slight win for the country. And some of the populists' economic ideas appear to be gaining ground.

有好有壞。美國總統川普的貿易戰有些成績,但尚未促成許多民粹主義者要求的那種改變,例如擊退中國的干預式產業政策。英國退出歐盟的計畫尚未獲國會通過。而義大利的民粹主義政府本月和歐盟達成一項財政協議,看似這個國家的小小勝利。此外,民粹主義者的部分經濟想法似乎也有所斬獲。

— Trump's trade wars.

-川普的貿易戰

Populists have long contended that the global system of free trade hurt the livelihoods of many American workers. Trump's trade war showed that it was not easy to force big changes in the arrangements that underpin the flow of trillions of dollars of trade.

民粹主義者長期主張,全球自由貿易系統傷害許多美國勞工的生計。川普的貿易戰顯示,要在支撐數以兆(美)元計的貿易往來協議上強加重大改變,並非易事。

The Trump administration began by imposing tariffs on countries to force them to agree to his demands. But that confrontational strategy did not press China or the European Union to surrender. Instead, the Trump administration struck truces with China and the EU and got mild concessions from other countries.

川普政府開始對一些國家課徵關稅,以迫使對方接受他的要求。但是那種對抗式的策略並未迫使中國或歐盟屈服。相反的,川普政府和中國及歐盟達成暫時停火,並從其他國家得到少許讓步。

On the battlefield of ideas, Trump's trade war has helped increase skepticism about free trade. Congress did not mount much resistance to his trade policy.

在觀念的戰場中,川普的貿易戰助長了對自由貿易的懷疑,國會對他的貿易政策未作太多抵抗。

— Rome is not burning (yet).

-羅馬(還)沒著火

After taking office in June, Italy's populists quickly let the European Union know that they would not stick to the previous government's fiscal targets for next year. Italy's new government said it expected its budget deficit to grow to 2.4 percent of gross domestic product in 2019. That number was too high for the EU, and the tension between Rome and Brussels caused a plunge in Italian government bonds and appeared to weigh on Italy's economy. But this month Italy and the EU agreed on a deficit of 2.04 percent of gross domestic product for 2019. True, the figure is lower than the populists' desired target, but it's significantly larger than the deficit target (0.8 percent of GDP) Italy's previous leaders agreed to.

義大利的民粹主義者今年6月上台後,很快就讓歐盟了解,他們不會遵守前朝政府的來年財政目標。義大利新政府說,預期2019年的預算赤字會增至國內生產毛額(GDP)的2.4%,這個數字對歐盟而言太高了,而羅馬和布魯塞爾關係緊張導致義大利公債價格大跌,也明顯影響義大利經濟。但是義大利和歐盟本月同意,將2019年預算赤字定在GDP的2.04%。沒錯,這個數字比民粹主義者想要的目標低,但是已比義大利前任領袖所同意的赤字目標(GDP的0.8%)高出了許多。

— Will "Brexit" fail?

-英國脫歐會失敗嗎?

Populism would face a big defeat if Britain ends up staying in the European Union after it voted to leave in 2016. Prime Minister Theresa May's government forged a departure agreement with the bloc last month, but it appears to lack the votes to get approved by the British Parliament.

英國於2016年公投決定脫歐,若最終留在歐盟,民粹主義將面臨重大挫敗。首相梅伊政府上月和歐盟達成脫歐協議,但似乎無法取得獲英國國會批准的足夠票數。

Several possible paths lie ahead. Britain could leave the EU without a deal, an outcome some populists might favor. Perhaps more likely, Parliament, fearing an economic crash, would vote for May's deal or a similar deal that ties Britain closer to the bloc. And the probability of a second referendum, in which voters may be asked if they still want to leave, continues to rise.

眼前有一些可能路線。英國可能無協議脫歐,這或許是一些民粹主義者樂見的結果。或許更有可能的,恐懼經濟崩潰的國會,會投票支持梅伊的協議或類似協議,讓英國與歐盟的關係更親近些。而第二次公投的可能性亦持續增高,屆時可能會問選民是否仍想脫歐。

※說文解字看新聞

本文探討民粹主義在全球的發展,介紹三個主要議題:川普的貿易戰、義大利預算赤字及英國脫歐。

美國政府對以中國為主的多個國家實施高關稅(impose tariffs),impose帶有強制施加意味,tariff此處作關稅解,在一般商務中則為「收費表」,「價目表」之意。

英文寫作中為避免同一字詞一再出現,會用其他字詞代換以求變化,用國家首都或組織總部所在地作為代名詞就是常見的例子,例如以Rome(羅馬)指義大利政府,以Brussels(布魯塞爾)代表總部設於當地的歐盟及北約組織。

小標Rome is not burning是雙關語,指義大利可能因債務問題「失火」成國家危機,出處是公元64年的羅馬大火。這場大火詳情已不可考,據稱發生於7月18日,火勢延燒六天,摧毀了大部分的羅馬市區。

近兩年在英語新聞經常可看到Brexit一字,由Britain加上exit合成,這個用法在2012年即出現,希臘於2010年發生債務危機後揚言退出歐元區,花旗集團分析師首先提出Grexit(Greece+exit)一字。

 
黃背心示威 反映流動性危機 France's Yellow Vests Reveal a Crisis of Mobility in All Its Forms
文/Michael Kimmelman
譯/李京倫

After more than a month of furious, antigovernment demonstrations across France, it is easy to forget that a gasoline tax set all this off.

在全法國各地一個多月以來出現憤怒的反政府示威之後,很容易忘記這一切原是燃油稅引發的。

A few cents per liter at the pump. A pebble in the sea of the French economy. A step to address climate change, according to President Emmanuel Macron.

每公升燃油調漲個幾分錢歐元,對法國經濟而言直如滄海一粟,根據法國總統馬克宏的說法,這是處理氣候變遷問題應走的一步。

Of course, that's not how millions of workers who depend on their cars saw it.

而當然,幾百萬依靠自用車的勞工卻不這麼看。

Mobility is the story of globalization and its inequities. Mobility means more than trains, planes and automobiles, after all. It also includes social and economic mobility — being too poor to afford a car, being rich enough to transfer money out of the country. These are all inextricably linked. Weeks of protests by the Yellow Vests have made that clear.

流動性反映了全球化及其不公。畢竟,流動性不只意味著列車、飛機和汽車,還包括社會和經濟上的流動性,也就是窮到買不起車,或者富到能轉移資產到國外。這些全都緊密相關,幾周的黃背心抗議讓這件事變得清楚。

Many of these protesters, predominantly white working poor and middle class people who scrape by on their paychecks and pensions, live in what author Christophe Guilluy has called "peripheral France." The term is meant to imply both a state of being and the thousands of small, struggling cities, towns and rural districts beyond the inner-ring suburbs of places like Paris, Bordeaux, Lyon or Lille.

黃背心抗議者主要是白人窮忙族和中產階級,靠薪水和退休金餬口,其中許多人在法國作家吉里所謂的「法國邊陲」生活。這個詞既是指存在狀態,也是指超出巴黎、波爾多、里昂或里爾這類大城近郊範圍的,法國數千個奮力掙扎的小城鎮與鄉村地區。

"As small businesses have been dying in these smaller cities and towns, people find themselves forced to seek jobs elsewhere and to shop even for basic goods in malls," said Alexis Spire, a French sociologist. "They need cars to survive, because regional trains and buses have declined or no longer serve them. Once you begin to unpack the Yellow Vest phenomenon, the uprising is a lot about mobility."

法國社會學家史皮爾說:「由於這些小城鎮的小商家陸續關門,人們不得不到別處找工作,甚至到購物中心採買必需品。他們要靠汽車才能存活,因為區域列車和公車班次減少或不再提供服務。一旦你開始剖析黃背心現象,會發現這場暴動很大程度跟流動性有關。」

Experts have been drawing parallels between the Yellow Vests and the social rifts exposed by Donald Trump's election in the United States and Britain's plan to leave the European Union. But there are also larger trends at work in France, involving the evolution of cities, the effect of cars, and the geography of race and class — trends rooted in the postwar years.

專家認為,黃背心示威暴露的社會裂痕,與川普當選美國總統和英國打算脫離歐盟暴露出的相似。不過,法國還有一些更大的趨勢在起作用,包括城市的演進、汽車的影響和種族與階級的地理分布,這些都是源於戰後的趨勢。

As a handful of big cities thrived with globalization, France's regional governments, saddled with more financial burdens, became caught in a vicious cycle. Capital disappeared along with factories and jobs. Revenues shrank, debts mounted, and infrastructure declined.

就在少數幾個大城靠著全球化欣欣向榮之際,背負更多財政重擔的法國地方政府卻陷入惡性循環,資金跟著工廠和工作機會一起消失,收入減少,債務攀升,基礎設施逐漸衰敗。

Among the hardest-hit services were the regional railways, run by French rail company SNCF, which overwhelmingly invested in high-speed trains that served the big, prospering cities and is now $56 billion in debt. With service atrophying, people need their cars.

受創最嚴重的公共服務之一,是法國國營鐵路公司經營的區域鐵路,法國國鐵一面倒投資連接繁榮大城的高速鐵路,目前負債560億美元。由於鐵路服務萎縮,人們便需要自用車。

The gasoline tax "exposed a profound cultural fracture," said Olivier Galland, a director at the National Center for Scientific Research.

法國國家科學研究中心高級主管加藍說,燃油稅「暴露出很深的文化裂隙」。

 
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