譯/李京倫、核稿/樂慧生
情報機關向川普簡報 要他專心很難
President Donald Trump has blamed many others for his administration's flawed response to the coronavirus: China, governors, the Obama administration, the World Health Organization. In recent weeks, he has also faulted the information he received from an obscure analyst who delivers his intelligence briefings.
美國總統川普把政府應對新冠肺炎疫情的缺失,歸咎於許多因素:中國大陸、美國各州州長、前總統歐巴馬政府和世界衛生組織。最近幾周,川普還怪罪情報簡報會上一名沒沒無聞的分析師給出的資訊。
Trump has insisted that the intelligence agencies gave him inadequate warnings about the threat of the virus, describing it as "not a big deal." Intelligence officials have publicly backed him, acknowledging that Beth Sanner, the analyst who regularly briefs the president, underplayed the dangers when she first mentioned the virus to him Jan. 23.
川普堅稱,情報機構提醒他關於新冠病毒的威脅時力道不夠,說疫情「沒什麼大不了」。情報官員在公開場合支持川普的說法,承認定期向川普報告的分析師貝絲.塞納,1月23日首次向川普提到新冠病毒時,對其危險性輕描淡寫。
But in blaming Sanner, a CIA analyst with three decades of experience, Trump ignored a host of warnings he received around that time from higher-ranking officials, epidemiologists, scientists, biodefense officials, other national security aides and the news media about the virus's growing threat. Trump's own health secretary had alerted him five days earlier to the potential seriousness of the virus.
不過,川普怪罪具30年經驗的美國中央情報局分析師塞納時,忽略了他在大約同時期收到關於新冠病毒威脅日漸增加的大量警告,來源包括其他更高階官員、流行病學家、科學家、生物防禦官員、其他國家安全幕僚和新聞媒體。川普自己的衛生部長阿查爾比塞納早5天即提醒川普新冠病毒潛在的危險性。
Trump is particularly difficult to brief on critical national security matters, according to interviews with 10 current and former intelligence officials familiar with his intelligence briefings.
紐約時報訪問熟知川普情報簡報會事務的10名現任與前任情報官員得知,在報告至關重要的國安事務時,特別難讓川普專心聆聽。
The president veers off on tangents, and getting him back on topic is difficult, they said. He has a short attention span and rarely, if ever, reads intelligence reports, relying instead on conservative media and his friends for information.
情報官員說,川普會突然跳開原來的思路,很難把他拉回正題。川普注意力集中的時間很短,而且幾乎從不閱讀情報報告,而是依賴保守派媒體和朋友獲取資訊。
Trump rarely absorbs information that he disagrees with or that runs counter to his worldview, the officials said. Briefing him has been so great a challenge compared with his predecessors that the intelligence agencies have hired outside consultants to study how better to present information to him.
這些官員說,川普很少接納他不同意和違背他世界觀的資訊。向川普報告遠比向歷任總統報告困難,以致情報機構聘請了外部顧問以研究如何更有效地向川普呈報資料。
"How do you know?" is Trump's common refrain during his 30- to 50-minute briefings two or three times a week. He counters with his own statistics on issues where he has strong views, like trade or NATO. Directly challenging him, even when his numbers are wrong, appears to erode Trump's trust, according to former officials, and ultimately he stops listening.
川普在一周兩三次、每次30到50分鐘的情報簡報會上經常說:「你怎麼知道是這樣?」川普會對貿易、北約等他有固執看法的議題,舉出統計數字反駁。前官員說,就算川普的數據是錯的,直接質疑川普似乎會減損川普對自己的信任,最後川普乾脆充耳不聞。
Intelligence briefings are among the most important entries on a president's calendar. The briefer, always a top CIA analyst, delivers the latest secrets and best insights from the 17 intelligence agencies. The oral briefings to Trump are based on the President's Daily Brief, the crown jewels of intelligence reports, which draws from spywork to make sophisticated analytic predictions about long-standing adversaries, unfolding plots and emerging crises around the world.
情報簡報會是美國總統行事曆上最重要的事項之一。簡報人一定是中情局頂尖分析師,報告的是美國17個情報機關提供的最新祕密情資和最佳洞見。向川普口頭報告的內容以「總統每日簡報」為基礎,這是所有情資報告的精髓,從蒐集來的情報擷取要點,目的是對長期存在的敵手、正在發展中的祕密計畫和全球各地剛出現的危機,做出精闢的分析性預測。
But getting Trump to remember information, even if he seems to be listening, can be all but impossible, especially if it runs counter to his worldview, former officials said.
不過,前官員說,要讓川普記住資料幾乎不可能,甚至川普看似在聽時也一樣,當資料與川普的世界觀相反時尤其困難。