2019年4月19日 星期五

How Powerful Is Vladimir Putin Really? 俄總統普亭 究竟握有多大權力?


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2019/04/26 第259期 訂閱/退訂看歷史報份
 
 
紐時周報精選 How Powerful Is Vladimir Putin Really? 俄總統普亭 究竟握有多大權力?
Try Van Gogh the Suburban Professional 梵谷狂野? 試想他是住郊區的上班族
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How Powerful Is Vladimir Putin Really? 俄總統普亭 究竟握有多大權力?
文/Andrew Higgins
譯/莊蕙嘉

After 19 months in a Russian jail awaiting trial for "extremism," Dennis O. Christensen, a Jehovah's Witness from Denmark detained for his faith, received an unexpected lift from President Vladimir Putin at the end of last year.

「耶和華見證人」丹麥籍成員丹尼斯.克里斯坦森因為信仰被拘留,在俄羅斯監獄待了19個月等候以「激進主義」罪名受審,去年年底意外獲得來自總統普亭的幫助。

The president, speaking in the Kremlin in December, declared that prosecuting people for their religious affiliations was "a total nonsense" and had to stop.

普亭去年12月在克里姆林宮發表談話,宣稱因民眾的宗教歸屬而起訴他們「荒謬透頂」,必須停止。

But instead of curbing a campaign across Russia against Jehovah's Witnesses, Putin's remark has been followed by more arrests; a conviction and six-year prison sentence for Christensen; and, in a new low, reports late last month of the torture of believers detained in Siberia.

但是,在普亭發表談話後,俄國非但沒有停止打擊耶和華見證人的活動,隨之而來的卻是更多的逮捕,克里斯坦森被定罪、判處六年徒刑。而且,上個月底更進而傳出拘留在西伯利亞的信徒遭受酷刑的消息。

The gulf between what Putin says and what happens in Russia raises a fundamental question about the nature of his rule after more than 18 years at the pinnacle of an authoritarian system: Is Putin really the omnipotent leader whom his critics attack and his own propagandists promote?

普亭在威權體制下擔任最高領導人已超過18年,而前述普亭所言和俄國現狀之間呈現的落差,引出了關乎他統治的一個基本問題:普亭果真如批評者所指斥、黨羽所吹捧般,是個無所不能的領導人?

Or does he sit atop a state that is, in fact, shockingly ramshackle, a system driven more by the capricious and often venal calculations of competing bureaucracies and interest groups than by Kremlin diktats?

或者,他位居頂峰的這個國家,其實已組織鬆散,搖搖欲墜到令人震驚的程度,驅動這個體系的主要力量,是彼此爭競的官僚與利益團體反覆無常且謀奪金錢的算計,而不是出自克里姆林宮的命令?

The belief, widespread among critics of President Donald Trump, that Russia propelled him to the White House by colluding with his campaign is premised in part on the first view of Putin's capacities and reach. The Mueller report, if ever released to the public, may help Americans better understand how Russia does or doesn't work in reality.

有種說法在美國總統川普的批評者間廣為流傳,認為俄羅斯透過和川普競選陣營共謀,幫忙把他送入了白宮,而這種說法的部分前提,則是普亭的能力及勢力範圍合乎本文前段所述的第一種假設(無所不能)。如果穆勒報告有朝一日公諸於大眾,或可幫助美國人更加了解俄國實際上如何運作。

But to some of Putin's fellow citizens, the Russian president's grip looks less firm than often imagined.

但是對一些普亭的公民同胞而言,這位俄國總統對權力的掌控看起來不若通常以為的堅實。

Ekaterina Schulmann is a political scientist in Moscow and a member of Putin's Council for Civil Society and Human Rights who challenged the president over the persecution of Jehovah's Witnesses at the December meeting in the Kremlin. She said Putin's grip on the country had been vastly exaggerated by both supporters and opponents.

莫斯科政治學家艾卡特莉娜.修曼是普亭的公民社會及人權理事會成員,她在去年12月的克里姆林宮會議中,針對起訴耶和華見證人成員案質疑總統。她說,普亭掌控國家的力道,同時被支持者和反對陣營高度誇大了。

"This is not a personally run empire but a huge and difficult-to-manage bureaucratic machine with its own internal rules and principles," she said. "It happens time and again that the president says something, and then nothing or the opposite happens."

「這並非個人統治的帝國,而是個巨大且管理困難的官僚機器,有著自己的內部規定和原則。」她說,「總統說了件事,結果什麼也沒發生,或是竟反其道而行,這是常有的事。」

A plethora of bureaucratic and political forces both reinforce and sap the president's power: the security services, the Russian Orthodox Church, billionaire oligarchs, local officials and others, each with its own sometimes competing and sometimes overlapping interests. Putin has to manage them as best he can, but he doesn't control everything they each do.

過度的官僚和政治力量,既加強也榨取了總統的權力:像是安全機構,俄羅斯東正教會,億萬富豪寡頭政客,地方官員等等,彼此間各有時而競爭,時而重疊的利益。普亭必須盡他所能管理這些勢力,但是他無法控制各方所做的每一件事。

※說文解字看新聞

本文從有別於主流媒體的角度,分析俄羅斯總統普亭的權力。俄國總統雖是由人民投票直選產生,但俄國是公認的authoritarianism(威權主義),政治權力集中於單一領袖,也就是普亭。

另一個概念類似的字為totalitarianism(極權主義),國家擁有絕對權威,並控制社會中的一切,最具代表性例子為二戰時期的納粹德國。極權主義可被視為威權主義的一種。

普亭被外界視為omnipotent(全能的)領導人,omni-源自拉丁語,作為字首有all(全部)之意,potent則為能力。另一個常和全能一同出現的字為omniscient(全知的),常見於形容上帝或政治領袖。

最後一段提到普亭須在各種勢力間折衝,包括oligarch(寡頭政客)。olig-字首為「少數」之意。

寡頭政治源自希臘時期,指權力集中於少數特權階級,在俄國則是指1991年蘇聯解體後,一些資本家在民營化過程趁勢崛起,形成富可敵國的寡頭政治人物。

俄國的寡頭政客包括第一副總理、俄羅斯石油公司總裁謝欽(Igor Sechin),以能源事業致富的Volga投資基金創辦人提姆琴科(Gennady Timchenko),2013年獲普亭特赦的石油富豪霍多爾科夫斯基(Mikhail Khodorkovsky)等。

 
Try Van Gogh the Suburban Professional 梵谷狂野? 試想他是住郊區的上班族
文/Nina Siegal
譯/莊蕙嘉

We like to think of Vincent van Gogh as a creature of the elements: buffeted by the wind and rain, or going mad in the sunflower fields under the wilting Provençal sun.

我們喜歡把文生.梵谷想像成在野外飽經風霜的人物:承受著風吹雨打,或是在普羅旺斯炙烈陽光下的向日葵花田中發瘋。

But here's another, just as valid, idea of van Gogh: comfortable, middle-class Vincent in a top hat and coat, commuting to work in Victorian London and spending his weekends rowing on the Thames or strolling in Kensington Gardens.

然而,梵谷另一種形象卻也同樣確有所本:自在的,穿著外套、戴著大禮帽的中產階級文生,在維多利亞時代通勤到倫敦上班,周末時在泰晤士河划船,或在肯辛頓花園漫步。

That was, indeed, van Gogh in his early 20s, when he moved to London from his native Netherlands to work for international art dealing firm Goupil & Cie as an assistant in its branch in the Covent Garden district.

那確實是20歲出頭時的梵谷,他自祖國荷蘭搬到倫敦,在國際藝術品交易公司古比爾位於柯芬園區的分公司當助手。

Van Gogh didn't make a single painting in London, but as "Van Gogh and Britain," a new exhibition at Tate Britain makes clear, his time in the British capital had an enduring effect on his work.

梵谷在倫敦一幅畫都沒畫,但是根據英國泰特美術館的新展覽「梵谷與英國」,他在英國首都度過的那段時光,對他的作品有長遠的影響。

The exhibition, which runs through Aug. 11, offers us a vision of van Gogh as a thinker who absorbed the cultural influences around him, especially 19th-century English literature, and often used references from British illustrations, prints and paintings in his work.

這項展覽展至8月11日,提供我們以一名思想者看待梵谷的新視角,他吸收周遭的文化影響,特別是19世紀英國文學,也常常在作品中參考英國插畫、版畫及油畫。

"Looking at his work through his relationship with Britain brings into the foreground his amazing intellectual curiosity," said Carol Jacobi, lead curator of the show.

這項展覽的主要策展人卡蘿.傑柯比說:「透過他與英國的關係來觀看他的作品,可以突顯出他驚人的求知慾。」

Recent research into lesser-known chapters of van Gogh's life, such as his time in Britain, have provided us with a more well-rounded image of the artist, slowly replacing the old vision of a wild man whose art came directly from the soul — though it will take a long time to shift that idea, said Sjraar van Heugten, an independent van Gogh art historian and curator based in Belgium.

最近探討梵谷生平較不為人知片段的研究,例如他在倫敦的時期,為我們提供了這位藝術家更全面的形象,慢慢取代這名狂野男子的作品直接來自靈魂的舊版本說法。以比利時為根據地的獨立梵谷藝術史學家兼策展人西賈.范休頓說,然而要改變這個想法還得花上很長的時間。

"It's entirely clear that van Gogh was not the completely spontaneous painter who worked very fast, almost without thinking," said van Heugten in an interview. "He read very widely: literature as well as popular science. If you carefully study his work, the image arises of a man who carefully thinks about his works and prepares."

「毫無疑問的是,梵谷並不是全然興之所至、幾乎不經思考而快速作畫的畫家。」范休頓受訪時說。「他博覽群籍:文學和大眾科學。如果你仔細研究他的作品,出現的形象會是一名仔細思考及準備作品的男子。」

Van Gogh got his job in London at the Goupil gallery through family connections in the Netherlands. Both Vincent and his brother Theo worked first in the firm's branch in The Hague, and about the same time that Theo moved to the Brussels branch, Vincent was sent to London. They both ended up working in the Paris headquarters, but although Theo rose through the gallery's ranks, Vincent was fired a couple of years later.

梵谷透過荷蘭的家族人脈,得到在倫敦古比爾公司的工作。文生和他的弟弟西奧一開始都在海牙的分公司上班,差不多同一時間,西奧調至布魯塞爾分公司,而文生被派到倫敦。他們兩人最後都在巴黎總部上班。但是不同於西奧在公司內向上升遷,文生在兩三年後被開除。

"It's really interesting to think of van Gogh as having this commercial chapter to his life," Jacobi said.

傑柯比說:「想到梵谷人生中有這麼一段商業篇章,確實挺有趣的。」

 
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