譯/陳韋廷
Before the massacre of 50 people in New Zealand mosques last month, the suspect released a document called "The Great Replacement." The first sentence was: "It's the birthrates." He repeated it three times.
紐西蘭上個月發生導致50人死亡的清真寺屠殺案，凶嫌犯案前發表了名為「大取代」的文件。劈頭第一句話是「就是出生率」，並重複了三次。
If the phrase about replacement sounded familiar, perhaps that was because it echoed what white supremacists bearing tiki torches shouted in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017: "You will not replace us." It is also the slogan of the neo-Nazi group Identity Europa.
如果這個關於替代的詞語聽來耳熟，也許是因為它附和了2017年維吉尼亞州夏洛茲維爾市，手持Tiki火炬白人至上主義者所喊出的口號「你們無法取代我們。」它同時也是新納粹組織「歐洲認同」的口號。
Behind the idea is a racist conspiracy theory known as "the replacement theory," which was popularized by a right-wing French philosopher. An extension of colonialist theory, it is predicated on the notion that white women are not having enough children and that falling birthrates will lead to white people around the world being replaced by nonwhite people.
這觀念背後是個被稱為「取代理論」的種族主義陰謀論，由一位法國右翼哲學家所推廣。它是殖民主義理論的延伸，其基礎是白人婦女未生下夠多的孩子，出生率下降將導致世界各地的白人被非白人所取代。
And like so many fundamentalist ideologies, the foundation of this one requires the subjugation of women.
跟很多基本教義派意識形態一樣，這個意識形態的基礎也是壓制女性。
"For people in the white power movement, everything is framed through reproduction and gender," said Kathleen Belew, history professor at the University of Chicago who has studied these groups.
曾研究這些團體的芝加哥大學歷史教授凱薩琳．貝魯說：「對投入白人權力運動的人們來說，一切都是由生殖和性別構成的。」
As far-right groups have grown across the world, many of their members have insisted that the most pressing concern is falling birthrates. That concern, which they see as an existential threat, has led to arguments about how women are working instead of raising families. The groups blame feminism, giving rise to questions that were unheard-of a decade ago — like, whether women should have the right to work and vote at all.
極右翼團體正在世界各地成長，他們許多成員堅認最急迫的問題是出生率下降。他們認為這個問題足以威脅生存，引發了有關女性走入職場而非在家養育子女的爭論。這些團體指責女權主義，一些十年前聽都沒聽過的問題也隨之出現，像是女性是否根本不應享有工作與投票的權利。
The obsession with birthrates is both shaping policy goals within the far right and serving as a rallying cry for recruitment. Experts tracking these movements say they are alarmed by the speed and strength with which the idea is spreading, especially among young radicals.
對出生率的執著既形塑極右派的政策目標，亦成為其招募新血的口號。追蹤這些運動的專家們表示，他們對這個觀念傳播的速度和力度感到驚訝，尤其是在激進的年輕人之間。
"In their minds, in this clash of civilization, white men are in a weaker position because their women are not doing the work of reproducing," said Arun Kundnani, a professor at New York University and author of "The Muslims Are Coming! Islamophobia, Extremism and the Domestic War on Terror." "They are saying, 'Look, Muslims have got their women where they need to be, and we're not doing a good job at that.'"
著有《穆斯林來了：恐伊蘭斯症、極端主義及國內反恐大戰》一書的紐約大學教授阿倫．昆德納尼說：「他們認為，在這場文明衝突中，白人處於弱勢，因為他們的女人沒有做好生育的工作。他們說「聽著，穆斯林已讓他們的女人站立於應該在的位置，而我們在這方面做得並不好。」
The concern over birthrates has hit a fever pitch in part because of recent studies showing sperm counts and testosterone declining. Some men are buying sperm counters to use at home, and some are turning to testosterone replacement therapy, convinced that modernity has feminized them. These have given old fears a new scientific sheen and led many in these communities to more apocalyptic, violent politics.
對出生率的擔憂到達狂熱的程度，部分係因近來研究顯示男性的精子數量與睾固酮濃度都在下降。一些男性購買精子數量計算器在家使用，有些人則轉向睾固酮替代療法，認為現代性讓他們女性化。這讓舊的恐懼披上新的科學光彩，並將這些團體中許多人帶向更末世論、更暴力的政治觀。
《說文解字看新聞》
replacement在文中意為「取代」，並非另一個常見意思「更換」，當用在一般消費活動時指的「換貨」之意，用在體育比賽則指的是替補上場的選手，例句Joe will be a replacement for the injured forward.（喬將替補受傷的前鋒出賽。）
supremacist指的是「至上主義者」，為一貶義詞，由代表「超越」的字首supr與表示「信奉...者」的名詞字尾ist組合而成，形容認為一個種族、宗教、民族、性別或其他事物至高無上的人。
例如Jewish supremacist（猶太至上主義者）、Hindu supremacist（印度至上主義者）及Black supremacist（黑人至上主義者）等等。而supremacism一詞，則指這些人信奉之意識形態。
文中片語fever pitch則指「狂熱、極度興奮」狀態，前面加上動詞hit則形容狂熱達到白熱化程度，而這種熱度或能從白人至上主義者集會時，手拿tiki牌火炬火光沖天的場景看出，tiki火炬指夏威夷式火炬，也是品牌名。
